Martingale betting system – why you should never use it

Hi, friends. Let’s talk about popular betting strategies that never work. One of the most well-known is the martingale strategy.

The main idea of martingale betting is very simple. You should bet on odds equal to 2.0 and higher. After every loss you should double the bet. So, after the first win you will recover all losses plus profit equal to the original wager, and “reset” the bet.

Why it could work? If we assume that you have an unlimited bankroll, and no wagering limit, then eventually you would win. Certainly, this strategy comes from probability theory.

Let’s dive into the maths, don’t be afraid it will be easy. OK, assume that you’ll bet on events with a 50% winning expectancy. Chances on lose streak with 1st bet – 50%, 2nd – 0,5*0,5*100%=25%, 3rd – 0,5*0,5*0,5*100%=12.5%; etc. So, in theory, this should work – in the end, you’ll win.

But what we will see in reality? First, all bookmakers have minimum and maximum wager. It means, that even with unlimited bankroll there would be a losing streak big enough to make you bankrupt. You could say, that chances for this will happen are very low, but they exist. And when it will happen you’ll lose all.

Second, bookmaker includes a margin in every odds. So, you will bet with odds 2.0 on an event with probability, not 50%, but 45%-48%. That’s why the long-run value for bookmakers would be higher.

Third, you should wait till the previous event will finish, before making another bet. You should have the ability to make bets all day long. And after all, you will win only your initial stake. Let’s assume, that your bankroll is 10 000 USD. You bet on an event with odds 2.0. You want to overcome losing streak of 10 events. Therefore your initial stake should be 10000 USD/(2^(10-1))~20USD. If your bankroll is lower, or you want to win more money your possible lose streak would be shorter and the possibility to lose everything is higher.

Conclusions. This strategy is very simple, but in the long-run, it will kill your bankroll. Martingale strategy will consume a lot of time. So, if you want to lose money and time – use the martingale betting system.

If you’re looking for a simple proven betting system – check out “Against line – betting strategy“

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