Against line – Betting strategy

This is simplest, but one of the most stable on long-run distance betting strategy. The idea is to place equal bets (~1% of your bankroll) on the highest odd above 4.0 in line 1X2. And that’s all ?

Ok, let’s go straight to my results. I’ve placed 115 wagers (chosen all events, that meet the criteria), 10 USD each. So, 18 wagers won and I’ve earned 1525.6 USD. Plus, 14 events haven’t started yet (actually I had to bet only on events before 9 Dec). I could redeem these wagers ( take 123.7 USD) and that would increase my profit, but for experiment purity, I’ll not do that.

Overall ROI, as you see is 35.86% (45.67% if I’ll redeem pending bets). Of course, ROI would be lower on distance, but absolute profit would be higher.

Let’s go deeper and try to understand, why this strategy works. We don’t do any calculations or pre-match analysis. So, what’s the secret sauce?

When it comes to popular matches with a clear favorite, bookmakers must balance betting odds, to make these events more attractive for bettors. That’s why betting odds, that bookmakers give us for underdog always higher than they should be. For example one of my winning bets was at Manchester City – Manchester United. X2 coefficient was 10.31. That means that the bookmaker estimates MU chances (including negative margin) as 1/10.31 ~ 9,7%. And this is the money – extra value for each of our bets.

OK, that strategy is simple, consistent and incredibly fast to implement. Why everyone don’t use it?

Your bankroll should be big enough. To make this experiment accurate I’ve bet 1150 USD in total, and that was pretty scary. You will lose a lot (83 loses in my experiment and 14 bets still waiting result) – it’s a lot of bad emotions. Long distance profit will pay it off, but it’s hard.

Thank’s for your attention. If this material was helpful you could support us and our experiments with donation, by sharing this article (social buttons below) or say “thank you” in comments (:

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